Did Releasing Crack Offenders Early Lead to More Crime? A 2018 Study Said No

Shorter sentences for crack cocaine offenders did not lead to more crime. A March 28, 2018 report from the U.S. Sentencing Commission found that people who got out early because of a retroactive guideline change reoffended at the same rate as people who served their full sentences.

After decades of mass incarceration for drug crimes, the original article saw this report as more evidence that harsh, very long drug sentences are not the answer to the so-called "war on drugs."

What the Sentencing Commission Does

Unless you are deeply involved in the federal justice system, you may not know about the U.S. Sentencing Commission.

Congress created the U.S. Sentencing Commission in 1984. It is an independent agency in the federal judicial branch. Its main jobs are to:

• Set sentencing policies for federal courts, including how severe punishments should be.
• Advise Congress and the executive branch on crime policy.
• Research and report on federal crime and sentencing for Congress, the courts, lawyers, researchers, and the public.

The Commission is best known for writing the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines, which federal judges must consider in every federal sentence. The Guidelines are its most important tool for setting federal sentencing policy. The 2018 report is part of its research job.

The March 2018 Report

The report is titled "Recidivism Among Federal Offenders Receiving Retroactive Sentence Reductions: The 2011 Fair Sentencing Act Guideline Amendment." Recidivism means committing a new crime or breaking release rules after getting out.

U.S. Sentencing Commission

Why the Crack Cocaine Rules Changed

Some background: federal law long punished crack cocaine far more harshly than powder cocaine. Most people sentenced for crack were Black, and most people sentenced for powder cocaine were white, even though, according to the original article, white and Black Americans used cocaine at about the same rate. So the gap fell hardest on Black defendants. When those numbers came to light, the original article argued, there was no reasonable conclusion other than that treating crack and powder so differently was rooted in racism.

To fix those unfair effects, Congress and the Commission began narrowing the gap. Congress narrowed it in the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. In 2011, the Commission changed the Guidelines to match and made the change retroactive. That let many people already in prison ask for shorter sentences.

What the Study Found

Courts granted 7,748 of these requests. The average sentence dropped by about 30 months. The concern was that people released early would return to crime more often than people who served longer sentences. So the Commission asked: "Did the reduced sentences for the FSA Retroactivity Group result in increased recidivism?" The overall answer was no.

Key findings:

• Recidivism rates were virtually identical. Over three years after release, both the early-release group and the comparison group had a rate of 37.9 percent.
• For both groups, the most common "most serious" event was a court or supervision violation, not a new serious crime. A supervision violation is not a very serious offense.
• Among those who reoffended, the median time to reoffend was about 14.5 months for both groups.

What the Numbers Mean

The report is good news for people who believe long sentences for drug offenders are bad policy. Sentences that were about 2.5 years shorter had no measurable effect on recidivism.

Without reading too much into the data, it is reasonable to conclude that the length of a sentence may have limited impact on reoffending. A sentence should still fit how serious the crime was. But decades-long sentences for drug offenders do not seem to stop drug crime or reduce recidivism. Other factors, like jobs, housing, and treatment, likely matter more. The original article pointed to economics as one of the biggest drivers of rises in crime.

The original article hoped more data like this would help people facing very long federal sentences and lead to a sentencing system more focused on rehabilitation.

Congress later made the Fair Sentencing Act itself retroactive in Section 404 of the First Step Act of 2018. Section 404 covers crack offenses committed before August 3, 2010 (Pub. L. 115-391 § 404(a)).

When the Commission makes a guideline cut retroactive, as it did in 2011, people already in prison can ask their sentencing court for a reduction under 18 U.S.C. § 3582(c)(2). To check whether a loved one might qualify for this or for Section 404 relief, start with the judgment (the court's written sentencing order) and the docket number.

Read the U.S. Sentencing Commission's report

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